In this article, we\u2019ll get to the bottom of it by covering the following topics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- What the planning fallacy is,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- How to recognize cognitive biases<\/a>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The steps to becoming more objective, and<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The importance of time tracking<\/a> in developing healthy habits and monitoring progress.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
We\u2019ll also provide real-life examples, as well as share some valuable tips and tricks to help you overcome the planning fallacy issue, so read on.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n![\"Planning](\"https:\/\/clockify.me\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Planning-fallacy-cover-scaled.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\nThe planning fallacy phenomenon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s start by defining the phenomenon which is to blame for our wishful thinking and setting unrealistic expectations and deadlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The term planning fallacy was introduced in 1977 by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky<\/a>, psychologists who tried to explain this tendency in people. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
They formulated the definition of the phenomenon, saying that the planning fallacy is: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
\u201cA tendency to underestimate the time it will take to complete a project while knowing that similar projects have typically taken longer in the past. So it\u2019s a combination of optimistic prediction about a particular case in the face of more general knowledge that would suggest otherwise.<\/em>\u201d <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
Simply put, the planning fallacy refers to a prediction phenomenon<\/strong> and unrealistic optimism<\/strong> in estimating the time we need to complete future tasks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sounds all too familiar? You shouldn\u2019t beat yourself up about it, as it happens to the best of us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And luckily, there are strategies to get more realistic in planning ahead<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But before we get to steps to beat the planning fallacy, let\u2019s examine why the phenomenon even happens. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Want to become an expert in time estimation? Check out these tips and tricks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- How to make precise work time estimates<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Why do people tend to succumb to the planning fallacy issue?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
There are several reasons why people continue to be overconfident in their predictions (even if they get it wrong every single time), such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- The optimism bias<\/a>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- The present bias,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Motivation, and <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Social pressure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Speaking from a behavioral perspective, the planning fallacy impacts 2 vital aspects of human behavior:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Critical thinking, and <\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Decision-making processes<\/strong>. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
When the 2 aspects are impaired, we\u2019re less likely to anticipate consequences and make correct assumptions, which makes us less rational and less likely to look at the task from different perspectives<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moreover, our organizational and time management skills<\/a> highly depend on both critical thinking and decision-making, which further increases the chances of harmful impact. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Additionally, there\u2019s a myriad of more personalized reasons each of us can add to the list above, such as our inability to break down tasks into smaller components. That will mostly depend on specific tasks and how we feel about completing them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now let\u2019s explain the connections between the planning fallacy and the key reasons from the list above. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reason #1: Optimism bias<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Optimism bias is deeply ingrained in our brains and essentially refers to a tendency to always see the glass half full. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
People all over the world tend to have this illusion, so being overly optimistic is not a cultural thing, as cognitive neuroscientist Tali Sharot explains in her book The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another relevant key point from the same book is that our perception of the world often relies on having positive expectations of the outcome<\/strong> \u2014 which is not a bad thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We just have to bear in mind that the outcomes won\u2019t always be as desirable as we\u2019d anticipated<\/strong>, and thus consider the what-ifs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Interestingly, a study on optimism bias<\/a> reports that the optimism bias happens to other species as well, such as birds and rats \u2014 indicating it\u2019s a deeply rooted evolutionary phenomenon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, the lack of optimistic tendencies can be noticed in people suffering from depression. According to The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders<\/a>, pessimism is the key symptom in a range of depression disorders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, what can we conclude about the connection between the planning fallacy and optimism? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Optimism is a healthy brain mechanism<\/strong> that helps us be happier and more confident to tackle challenges that life throws at us. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, if we\u2019d like to reap its benefits and avoid the planning fallacy, we must be fully aware that we\u2019re biased<\/strong>. That\u2019s the only way not to underestimate the risks and succeed in a world of uncertainty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reason #2: Present bias<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Another bias that shapes our decision-making processes, thus enabling the existence of the planning fallacy, is the present bias. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The relationship between our past, present, and future self<\/strong> often comes down to seeking an immediate reward<\/strong> \u2014 beneficial for the present self \u2014 even if we know that the future self will regret the decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you\u2019d like to find out more about the present bias, this guide is a must-read:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Present bias: how to overcome it to pursue future goals<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
In the context of the planning fallacy, the present bias makes it difficult to be objective about future events. In order to justify satisfying our present self<\/strong>, we\u2019ll create an ideal scenario for completing the task, not accounting for any obstacles or interruptions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or, in the words of one of our favorite cartoon characters: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThat’s a problem for future Homer! Man, I don’t envy that guy!\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reason #3: Motivation <\/h4>\n\n\n\n
There are 2 types of motivation \u2014 intrinsic and extrinsic<\/a> \u2014 and they both play a role in the existence of the planning fallacy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Intrinsic motivation is what drives us internally, the cases when our own satisfaction is the reward itself. On the other hand, extrinsic motivation revolves around external rewarding factors, such as money, praise, etc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The connection with the planning fallacy is quite obvious here \u2014 low motivation can cripple us from taking action, but we can\u2019t really anticipate how motivated we\u2019ll feel in the future<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Additionally, our initial motivation levels are usually the highest at the stage when the task or a project is still abstract. That\u2019s the moment when we\u2019re aware of the benefits, yet still unaware of challenges such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Obstacles we might encounter,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Procrastination<\/a> and its negative impacts, and <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Realization of the tasks we find unpleasant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, we\u2019re creating a plan or a schedule convinced the said levels would remain that high, which, unfortunately, often isn\u2019t the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Want to step up your game and learn about different motivation methods and theories? This article can help you, so check it out:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Motivation guide: How to get and stay motivated<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Reason #4: Social pressure<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
People are inherently social creatures \u2014 our lives are shaped by the social norms<\/strong>, as well as our relationships and interactions with others. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
We grow up in families, work in teams, and develop friendships and romantic relationships, so it\u2019s only natural that people around us have influence on our behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, that influence can turn into pressure to fit in and conform to a specific standard<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
That type of pressure is called social pressure<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Consider the following scenario: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s Monday, and you\u2019re on a call with your business partner. The two of you are discussing the timeline and responsibilities for the following week, so you\u2019re both fully aware of what needs to be done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\nAt some point, you make a confident statement such as \u201cConsider it done by the end of the week!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And then an unexpected obstacle occurs, and you end up having to take a sick day. The week goes by, and you manage to complete only 70% of the planned activities. Now you have to ask for a deadline extension, and are most likely feeling bad about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s only natural that we all want to make a good impression on other people<\/strong>, right? That\u2019s where the social pressure kicks in, along with the tendency to be overly optimistic and perhaps too confident in our future selves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, in reality, while we want to impress others and show them just how capable we are, once again \u2014 the planning fallacy occurs, as Dyedra K C Morrissey in her doctoral thesis<\/a> on the University of Oxford explains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The reasons are many, from taking an unplanned sick day to simply the core of the planning fallacy issue \u2014 underestimating the time we needed to complete the task. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Negative effects of the planning fallacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Making unrealistic predictions can be dangerous<\/strong> in both our private and professional aspects of life. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
On an individual scale, for starters, it will lead us to miss deadlines and damage our reputation or relationships \u2014 by making us seem unreliable. Moreover, it can have financial consequences<\/strong> and lead to the deterioration of one\u2019s mental health<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But there\u2019s also the big picture, such as the world economy and climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here\u2019s a (not so) fun fact<\/strong>: several economists and neuroscientists<\/a>, including the aforementioned Tali Sharot, claim the optimism bias, so implicitly the planning fallacy as well, is \u201cone of the core causes for the financial downfall in 2008<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now let\u2019s see some other examples of negative effects of the planning fallacy issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Negative effect #1: Sub-optimal project results<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
We\u2019ve already mentioned that the planning fallacy negatively affects our critical thinking and decision-making processes.<\/strong> So let\u2019s look at the impact of setting unrealistic goals and deadlines in a business environment, specifically for project planning and realization. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
When it comes to project management<\/a>, some common repercussions of the planning fallacy are: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Sub-optimal results regarding quality, <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Missed deadlines, and <\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Financial damages.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The reason is that when we underestimate the time needed to complete a task, there are 2 additional factors that we don\u2019t take into account<\/strong>. The said factors are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Negative consequences of poor decision-making, and<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Financial costs that happen due to delays in the planned schedule or inaccurate estimates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
So, the more complex the project is, the more damaging those consequences can be. Here\u2019s to name a few examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Employee dissatisfaction and turnover,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Potential for lawsuits, and<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Bankruptcy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
That applies not only to individual projects but the overall business reputation of a company or an organization. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Negative effect #2: Decreased productivity and efficiency<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Being aware we\u2019re behind our planned schedule is simply frustrating. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
We set certain expectations of our own capabilities and judgment, and when those expectations aren\u2019t met, it\u2019s only natural that we feel discouraged or even disappointed in ourselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s when our stress levels rise, and instead of being in the moment, we tend to worry about the future outcome. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those negative feelings impact our motivation<\/strong> and as a consequence, our productivity and efficiency<\/a> levels are reduced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
So on top of already not being on track, the margin of error increases, and we\u2019re more likely to procrastinate and overthink.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Instead of blaming ourselves once again, we should remind ourselves that the original plan was faulty<\/strong> and unreasonably optimistic. Accepting that as a fact is the first step in beating the planning fallacy in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After all, only if we\u2019re aware of the issue can we record and later analyze the data to prevent a similar issue from happening again and get better at making precise estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Want to become the master of productivity? Then you must check out our thorough guide: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Personal productivity guide: Maximize productivity with these methods and apps<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Negative effect #3: Poor self-esteem and psychological well-being<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
As we\u2019ve mentioned above, failing to meet our expectations leads directly to disappointment, overworking<\/a>, and stress. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Without properly understanding the role of the planning fallacy, we\u2019ll put the blame on ourselves and start feeling low and inadequate, and even experience the imposter syndrome<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As Tchiki Davis<\/a> from Berkley Well-Being Institute explains, such feelings are directly related to low self-esteem and self-confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Following on to that, one of the studies on self-esteem<\/a> points out self-esteem is closely related to our psychological well-being, and an important predictor of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What is interesting is that\u2019s exactly the opposite of what happens when we create the same unrealistic timeline. So, contrary to being overly enthusiastic, we end up experiencing a decrease in motivation, followed by doubt in our expertise and abilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you\u2019ve ever struggled with being in control of your time, the solution might be in this article:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- How to take back control of your time<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Negative effect #4: Damaged interpersonal relationships <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Apart from letting yourself down, the planning fallacy results in letting other people down. When missing deadlines and breaking promises become a pattern, everyone involved or affected will perceive you as unreliable and untrustworthy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both your integrity and reputation will be compromised<\/strong>, as you\u2019ll be perceived as someone whose actions don\u2019t measure up to your words and promises<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In terms of personal life, for example, you may end up being that<\/em> person \u2014 whom everyone always expects to be late for family gatherings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, as we\u2019ve mentioned above, the impacts of the planning fallacy in business have the potential to ruin your credibility<\/strong> and even result in your company failing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of the reasons is that there are more dependencies involved, so one delay impacts every following step. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As a consequence, your clients and business partners will think of you as unprofessional and undesirable to work and cooperate with<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you\u2019re looking for ways to show and encourage honesty and transparency in the workplace, this article will be helpful:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- How to encourage honesty among employees and staff<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
7 Useful strategies to deal with the planning fallacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Now that we\u2019ve covered the basics, let\u2019s see what we can do to overcome the planning fallacy issue<\/strong>. Unfortunately, there\u2019s no magic formula that will always work, but helpful strategies and techniques do exist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here are 7 good practice examples<\/strong> and ideas you can use to notice and combat the planning fallacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Strategy #1: Continuous research, data analysis, and reflection<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s start with arguably the most important step \u2014 using data and previous experience to your advantage<\/strong>. As we\u2019ve explained, the planning fallacy occurs due to making assumptions and following our intuition, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So instead, we ought to try to be more objective and create future estimates based on evidence. That\u2019s why tracking time spent on different tasks and activities is vital to beating the planning fallacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Software solutions can make this process easier,<\/strong> as many offer Reports<\/a> and Forecasting<\/a> features.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s extremely beneficial as the data for all team members and all projects will be taken into account for future estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n![\"Clockify](\"https:\/\/clockify.me\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Clockify-forecasting-1.png\")
Forecasting in Clockify<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n As you can see from the screenshot above, that way you\u2019ll be able to visualize progress and compare expected vs. actual time<\/strong> for completion. In addition, reports and project forecasts will help you find patterns, if there are any. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, for example, you\u2019ll be able to pinpoint when delays or failures happen<\/strong> and thus take action to prevent them in the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Last but not least, you might even establish some specific problems that can be easily solved or dealt with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, your summary report may indicate that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- One of the team members is continuously missing their deadlines, which always results in further delays and the extension of the whole project,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- External deliveries from a specific company are often late, and similarly.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
![\"Clockify](\"https:\/\/clockify.me\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Clockify-reports.png\")
Detailed, Weekly, and Summary reports in Clockify\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n \n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Need some help with improving your time management skills? These free calculators may do wonders for you, so check out this article:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Free time management calculators<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Strategy #2: Team and budget tracking for projects<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
We\u2019ve already pointed out some negative effects of the planning fallacy occurring in project realization. Now let\u2019s see what we can do to promptly identify if something is off track<\/strong> and avoid the damaging consequences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, it\u2019s essential to keep track and record time, as well as every other resource used more often than you think you need to. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The more milestones you determine in the project roadmap, the greater the opportunity to notice and react to failure or possible delays. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Additionally, for projects, combating planning fallacy must be a team effort, and that\u2019s why it\u2019s best to use a team tracking application<\/a> for this purpose. That way, everyone can check the project’s progress and see who works on what.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Luckily, there are more useful tools than ever \u2014 here\u2019s an example of a team and budget tracking in Clockify<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n![\"Clockify](\"https:\/\/clockify.me\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Clockify-Dashboard.png\")
Clockify Dashboard view\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n \n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adequate resource allocation is vital in project management, and if you\u2019d like to brush up your knowledge on the topic, this article is for you:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- How to track resource allocation<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Strategy #3: Breaking down complex tasks into smaller and more manageable ones<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
A solid breakdown process of a project\u2019s specific tasks can go a long way and significantly reduce the planning fallacy dangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Your ability to correctly identify tasks<\/strong> will create a framework for a more detailed schedule, and a timeline with more milestones<\/strong>. That ability is referred to as microproductivity<\/a> and serves the purpose of making us use the one-step-at-a-time strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Why is it important? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, smaller tasks become more manageable, and we perceive them as more doable<\/strong>, which further makes us more motivated to complete a task. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, keeping track of the time you allocate to a smaller task will provide you with more relevant and precise information<\/strong> about the whole process. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the third vital reason is that it\u2019s simply easier to pinpoint and respond to a smaller delay promptly<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, instead of estimating that it takes 4 days to complete the \u201cwrite a monthly report\u201d task, try breaking it down into components. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
After a breakdown, you\u2019ll have several smaller tasks (data gathering, creation of visuals, writing the email, etc.) with smaller time allocations, thus a better understanding of which step actually took longer than expected<\/strong> to complete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That way, next time your plan includes the same step, you\u2019ll make a better and more accurate estimate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify Pro Tip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Eager to find out more about adequately identifying tasks in a project? Then you\u2019ll find this blog post quite useful:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- How to break a project down into tasks<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Strategy #4: Continuous improvement of time management skills<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Apart from precisely estimating the time needed to complete a task, you should also focus on finding a way to complete your tasks in less time eventually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And, after all, our primary time management skills<\/strong> include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Scheduling,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Planning,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Organizing, and<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Prioritizing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
That\u2019s where the importance of time management becomes apparent in relation to the planning fallacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not only will you significantly reduce the likelihood of the planning fallacy happening, but the steps for improving the set of skills will also boost the organic development of healthy habits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\ud83d\udca1 Clockify ProTip<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here\u2019s everything you need to know about the importance of time management (tips and tricks are included):<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- How to break a project down into tasks<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
- How to track resource allocation<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
- Free time management calculators<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
- How to encourage honesty among employees and staff<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
- How to take back control of your time<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
- Personal productivity guide: Maximize productivity with these methods and apps<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
- Realization of the tasks we find unpleasant.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- Decision-making processes<\/strong>. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- The optimism bias<\/a>,<\/li>\n\n\n\n